The AK-47 Case Hardened is one of the most iconic and complex skins in CS2. With 1000 possible patterns, some are common while others are worth over $1 million dollars. This guide details everything about Blue Gems, pattern seeds, and why some of these skins are so valuable.
What Defines a Blue Gem?
A "Blue Gem" is determined by the amount of blue on the dust cover (top lid) and the magazine of the weapon. Blue on the barrel or buttstock doesn't count for classification.
The pattern is determined by a larger digital image, where the weapon's shape is randomly overlaid, creating 1000 unique combinations (seed 1-1000).
The Legendary Pattern #661 - "The Scar"
Pattern #661, known as "The Scar", is considered the best Blue Gem in the world. Features:
- ~95%+ blue coverage on the dust cover
- Small yellow stripe on the front left side (the “scar”)
- It’s the most famous and valuable #661 in the game (the Case Hardened “holy grail”)
> Note: “how many exist” changes over time (new unboxes/trade-ups, private inventories, VAC bans), so treat these as estimates.
Tier System - AK-47 Case Hardened
Tier 0 (S Tier) - The Apex
Pattern: 661- Estimated: $50,000 - $150,000+ (non-StatTrak)
- StatTrak FN (1/1): ~US$ 1,000,000+ (reported)
- The only skin in its own category
Tier 1 - Elite Blue Gems
Patterns: 151, 168, 179, 321, 387, 555, 592, 670, 760, 809, 955These are the true blue gems with massive blue coverage. Features:
- 85-95% blue coverage
- Prices: $5,000 - $30,000 depending on float
- Pattern 151 and 955 are most popular after 661
Tier 2 - Excellent Blue Gems
Patterns: 4, 13, 28, 32, 65, 74, 82, 92, 103, 122, 139, 147, 172, 189, 205, 228, 256, 323, 341, 426, 430, 442, 463, 479, 512, 525, 526, 532, 541, 571, 578, 605, 617, 627, 695, 698, 708, 713, 750, 752, 791, 828, 844, 868, 887, 888, 892, 903, 905, 922, 950, 969, 978, 996- 70-85% blue coverage
- Small visual difference from Tier 1
- Prices: $1,500 - $8,000
- Great value for a real blue gem
Tier 3 - Good Blue Gems
Patterns: 34, 81, 112, 278, 310, 363, 381, 413, 428, 429, 450, 519, 557, 586, 610, 647, 685, 689, 690, 733, 754, 770, 819, 823, 856, 862, 872, 878, 935, 1000- 50-70% blue coverage
- Prices: $500 - $2,000
- Accessible and still impressive
Tier 4 - Blue Tops
82+ patterns listed- 30-50% blue coverage
- Prices: $200 - $800 premium over market price
- Entry into blue gem world
How Float Affects Value
AK-47 Case Hardened can exist in all conditions:
| Condition | Float Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Factory New | 0.00 - 0.06 | Most expensive, fewer scratches |
| Minimal Wear | 0.07 - 0.14 | Great value |
| Field-Tested | 0.15 - 0.37 | Most common |
| Well-Worn | 0.38 - 0.44 | Visible wear |
| Battle-Scarred | 0.45 - 1.00 | Very scratched |
“Rare floats” (0.00x and 0.99x)
- 0.00x (very low): collectors pay a premium, especially on Tier 1 / Tier 0 patterns
- 0.99x (very high): some skins have a “max wear” niche, but Case Hardened usually gets less premium than low-float
Unbox Probability
To understand the rarity:
- Chance to roll a Classified item from a case: ~0.12% (≈ 1 in 800)
- Since CS:GO Weapon Case has 2 Classified skins, the chance of AK-47 | Case Hardened is ~0.06% (≈ 1 in 1,600–1,700)
- With 1000 seeds, the “raw” chance of a specific seed (e.g., #661) is roughly 1 in 1.6 million cases (before StatTrak/float)
- For StatTrak Factory New + seed #661, the odds are astronomically low (practically a once-in-a-blue-moon event)
Other Popular Case Hardened Weapons
Five-SeveN Case Hardened
Top patterns: 278, 690, 868, 151- Pattern 278 is the most famous blue gem
- Blue gem prices: $500 - $5,000
Case Hardened Knives
- Karambit #387 - Practically 100% blue, legendary ($50,000+)
- Karambit #269 - Another exceptional tier 1
- M9 Bayonet #601 - Classic blue gem
- Check csgobluegem.com for knife tier lists
How to Check Patterns
- Inspect In-Game - See the pattern ID in inspect menu
- CSFloat/NTSkins - Shows seed automatically
- Float Database - csfloat.com has complete database
- Steam Guides - Community guides with screenshots of each pattern
Tips for Buying Blue Gems
✅ Do:
- Always check the pattern seed before buying
- Compare screenshots with reference guides
- Use marketplaces that show the pattern (CSFloat, Buff163)
- For expensive blue gems, use middleman or escrow
❌ Don't:
- Never pay overpay without confirming the pattern
- Watch out for manipulated screenshots (different lighting)
- Don't trust "blue gem" without seeing the seed
- Avoid trading outside secure platforms
Case Hardened Investment
Why invest:
- ✅ CS:GO Weapon Case (where they drop) is no longer common
- ✅ Specific blue gems are UNIQUE - fixed supply
- ✅ Consistent collector demand
- ✅ #661s appreciated 300%+ in the last 3 years
Risks:
- ⚠️ Low liquidity for very specific patterns
- ⚠️ Niche market - requires knowledge
- ⚠️ Medium patterns can be hard to sell with premium
Glossary
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Blue Gem | Pattern with high % of blue |
| Scar Pattern | Nickname for #661 |
| Pattern Seed | Number 1-1000 that defines the pattern |
| Dust Cover | Top lid of AK where blue is evaluated |
| Play Side | Visible side when holding the weapon |
| Overpay | Premium paid above market price |
*Updated February 2026